The reality of the prospects of the Uhuruto coalition team serving a one term Presidency is real with the looming gigantic threat from the National Super Alliance (NASA) is already sending shockwaves of panic in the Jubilee party.
The signals of the shockwaves panic have already been publicly exposed by President Uhuru Kenyatta himself when he pleaded with Baringo Senator Gideon Moi not to align himself with the brewing NASA tsunami.
The other most recent signal is when he sent his close associate Members of Parliament from his party as emissaries to dissuade the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader and architect of the NASA alliance Musalia Mudavadi not to join Cord bigwigs led by Raila Odinga in public rallies in Nandi Sub-County.
Though President Kenyatta is on record of having publicly declared that NASA is a tribal outfit that Jubilee will defeat at the next general election in 2017, the truth of the matter is that he was only trying to put a brave front to cover up his nightmares from NASA conveniently forgetting that Jubilee is the most salient tribal outfit composed of the GEMA lot spiced by a smattering of the so called KAMATUSA.
It is indeed interesting to note that in response to his desperate plea to Gideon Moi, the Senator told President Kenyatta that Kalenjins to not trust his Deputy William Ruto who apparently is considered to have betrayed the community.
On the other hand his emissaries to dissuade Mudavadi once a close friend and former running mate in the 2002 general elections from the Narok opposition outing, President Kenyatta got a public rebuff and Mudavadi went ahead to join the Cord team.
The truth of the matter is that with the bonding of Jubilee to form a political party from the coalition that it was of The National Alliance (TNA)-a GEMA outfit and United Republican Party (URP) a Kalenjin outfit – the GEMA and the Ruto faction of the Kalenjin communities effectively isolated themselves from the rest of Kenyan communities.
That said and done the GEMA that is the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru communities, and Ruto’s faction of the Kalenjin community do they have enough numbers to carry them against the rest of the other nearly forty other ethnic communities of Kenya? The Gikuyu may be the leading ethnic community in Kenya that votes as a bloc for one of its own, but with their Embu and Meru voters can they effectively ensure President Kenyatta’s second term in office? How many Merus and Embu’s are disgruntled of perennially being used by Kikuyus to stick to power as they are relegated to morsels? What are going to be the consequences of the resulting fallout in Jubilee following its recent elections of party leaders in the Counties throughout the country?
On the other hand for Uhuru’s running mate from the Kalenjin Community of Rift valley there are many burning challenges that he cannot be assured of delivering a block vote of the Kalenjin community to Uhuru as it were during the last general elections.
It is not a public secret that former retired President Daniel Arap Moi the father of Gideon also from the same Kalenjin community as at complete cross roads with the DP not withstanding his son, the Bomet Governor Isaack Ruto among many other rebellions against the DP that have been witnessed in recent months points to a clearly fractured Rift Valley that Ruto may not deliver as a bloc to Uhuru the way it was in 2013.
Interestingly the rebelling Kalenjins led by Senator Moi and Governor Rutto have all gravitated towards NASA, notwithstanding the fact that Uhuru is under pressure not only from his Kikuyu community but also a huge section of the Kalenjin to dump William Ruto as a running mate in next year’s general elections.
It must also not be forgotten that the Uhuruto duo were actually effective political opportunists who exploited their deadly woes with the International Criminals Court (ICC) at the Hague for their alleged involvement in the post 2007 general elections violence that resulted in the deaths of more than 1200 Kenyans and hundreds of thousands displaced to drum up sympathy for their election into office.
This time round there is no looming ICC spectre to exploit for political mileage and the Independent Electoral & Boundary Commission (IEBC) under constant microscopic scrutiny over possible rigging the Uhuruto team may be completely justified in entering a panic mode of serving a one term presidency with the emerging forces arraigned against them.
Other Uhuru and his Deputy Ruto are on record publicly declaring that their opposition is confused and constantly bickering as to who is going to be their flag bearer for the Presidency at the next general elections a situation that appears to have been confounded with Mudavadi joining the Cord group.
Therefore essentially the opposition has Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Raila Odinga (ODM), Moses Wetangula (Ford Kenya) and Musalia Mudavadi all gunning for the Presidency thus creating a scenario as it was when NARC was formed to obliterate Kanu from having a power stranglehold in the country.
Interestingly the retiring Moi had bulldozed the Kanu party followers to accept Uhuru as the party’s flag bearer for the 2002 general elections with Mudavadi who had rebelled coerced into being Uhuru’s running mate a set up that was announced pretty early as NARC dillydallied to announce its flag bearer.
Indeed NARC delayed that announcement until only three months to the electioneering date when they announced that retired President Mwai Kibaki was going to be the opposition coalition’s flag bearer with the late Wamalwa Kijana of Ford Kenya as a running mate and the duo trounced Kanu with hands down.
It is from this background that with NASA announcing its flag bearer at the last minute, it is most likely to spell doom for the Uhuruto duo’s attempts to win a second term in office.
The main reason why is the fact that NASA has got all the opportunity and good will to Marshall all the votes of the Luhyia community or the former western province support with Mudavadi and Wetangula singing the same tune, the former Nyanza province, grab huge chunks of votes from the spacious Rift Valley – particularly the Kalenjins’ the Maasai, the Turkana, the Pokots among others.
Central province will be left to Jubilee, but not Nairobi whose majority vote is likely to go to NASA, followed by sharing of Eastern Province and sweeping the North Eastern and Coast provinces will definitely consign the Jubilee administration to a single term administration.
Despite the fact that Uhuruto duo has been desperately trying to traverse the country to seduce voters to their side right from the coast all the way through Eastern, North Eastern, Central, Nairobi, Rift Valley, Nyanza and now western province they are hard pressed to impress the voters with the power of their colossal financial muscle and the so called jubilee development projects.
The other critical issues that have the Jubilee administration in a box are the persistent endless multi-billion shillings scandals of corruption, looting public financial resources and outright shameless plunder of these resources with impunity with President Kenyatta going public to declare that the opposition are incensed that Jubilee big wigs are busy eating Nyama Choma while the opposition is on the sidelines salivating with plates of mboga.
Apart the rampant corruption, looting and plunder of the tax payers finances and resources, there is also the widespread tribalism in the appointment of senior officers in the public service with most of the jobs being virtually exclusive for Kikuyus and Kalenjins.
It should also not be forgotten that the duo is known to have played a highly treacherous games to worm themselves into office against Mudavadi, Musyoka, and even Raila in the past general elections.
That aside in case the Uhruto duo rigged itself into a second term using the power of their financial muscle, this time round, they will still have extremely serious challenges in mastering the majority of numbers in the National Assembly, the Senate and even the Council of Governors all of which are likely to be swept by NASA.
Crippled in these areas, the duo can easily still be hounded out of office through impeachment in case they are found to have fraudulently wormed themselves into office – that is how deadly the NASA threat is to the troubled Jubilee political party with divisions within itself.